While Princeton University researchers predict Facebook could shed 80% of its users over the next few years, a Carnegie Mellon University computer scientist has the social network's back and says Facebook's prospects are good.
Post-doctoral researcher Bruno Ribeiro of Carnegie Mellon's Computer Science Department has published a paper in which he describes a new model for predicting the growth or demise of membership-based websites, such as social networks. In the study, Ribeiro uses six years' worth of data on daily user activity to divvy sites into those that are self-sustaining, like the now 10-year-old Facebook, and those that rely more on marketing and news coverage to survive.
+ Also on NetworkWorld: Facebook turns 10 -- A look back at the milestones +
The self-sustaining sites are marked by having members who prod or inspire more passive users into remaining at least somewhat active. The sites themselves also exhibit behavior designed to spur activity among members. "If this model is correct, social network sites will try to make your friends' lives seem more interesting and your feedback on their posts more urgent," Ribeiro said.
Some teens may indeed be anti-Facebook
Facebook asserts its success of mobile with another strong quarter
At 10, Facebook strives not to be your granny social network
Though Ribeirio does caution that even successful self-sustaining sites can get taken down by upstarts, as Facebook did to MySpace (which is now back).
Sites aside from Facebook seen as self-sustaining by Ribeiro include the Huffington Post and LinkedIn, whereas Flixster.com, OccupyWallSt.org and TeaPartyPatriots.org fell into the unsustainable category.
Facebook will no doubt embrace the CMU report, unlike that of Princeton's, which the social network responded to with a cheeky research report in which it argues that Princeton "may be in danger of disappearing entirely."
Ribeiro hopes his model, which goes beyond pure membership numbers and growth rates, will help those building and investing in websites gain a better understanding of how to keep their sites active.
Ribeiro will present his research at the World Wide Web Conference, April 7-11, in Seoul.
The second episode of CMO’s 3-part video series on how CMO50 luminaries are achieving greater marketing agility has landed!
The humble unboxing video is a powerful tool. Correctly executed, it harnesses consumer fandom, viral authenticity and brand design magic to deliver a high-impact message to a tightly targeted cohort of consumers.
Purpose is the ultimate statement of intent for many organisations. Why are we here? What are we trying to achieve?
Warren Buffet is an unlikely ally for marketers. But his belief businesses need strategic moats that increase their value in the market while acting as barriers to competitors can offer marketers a new playbook for brand building and driving growth.
who wants to date me I am 9 years old and i am a boy
Jeremy Hawkins
Sink a sub gaming experience signals Subway's renewed brand push
Great read. I agree that it should be a perfect balance between interacting with your customers and knowing your brand. As a business, yo...
Caroline Scott
7 ways CMOs can improve their customer engagement game
Very true. Team development helps improve collaboration among the team members. I was able to improve my team's collaboration skills by t...
Quent Sinder
Why empowering others can help make you a great leader
CRM is a very good software that can help you succeed in your business. In my company, this system has allowed me to improve customer rel...
Anna Janicka
Sensis rebrands to Thryv and brings business software to Australian SMBs
AI Leasing Assistants have finally arrived for the multifamily industry. With so many to choose from it can be hard to figure out which i...
Alice Labs Pte. Ltd.
CMO's top 8 martech stories for the week - 6 May 2021